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☆ Bank fears will likely lead to even more market volatility in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Market turbulence could reign supreme once again in the week ahead, as investors worry about the potential for more trouble rippling through the banking system. The broader market was initially under pressure Friday as investors became jittery about Deutsche Bank . "The market is saying: 'You, the Fed, do not appreciate the slowdown that is going to hit us,'" Chandler said. "The market is going to do a lot better and it held onto its gains despite all the things that rocked the market. He added that market concern about banks has risen, and there is concern credit tightening will hurt the economy.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Powell flipped the script
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, exits following a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, March 22, 2023. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The last few Federal Open Markets Committee meetings have followed a pattern. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Jerome Powell flipped the script
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The last few Federal Open Markets Committee meetings have followed a pattern. Markets had expected a hike of 25 basis points, and that's what they got. Indeed, Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist of LPL Financial, noted "markets are responding well to the expected 25 basis points rate hike." Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Markets saw a dovish Fed hike but Powell's warning on credit conditions spooked investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Are we going to celebrate the end of Fed rate hikes because things have started to hit the fan?" Strategists pointed to Powell's comment that financial conditions may have tightened more than it appears in traditional market measures, which would be stocks and bond spreads. "Number one, he remains unwavering on inflation, and he does acknowledge he sees a tightening of credit conditions. Briggs also called out Powell's comments about the impact from credit tightening , and the effect those actions can have. "That tightening via credit conditions can take the place of hikes (and vice versa if we don't get tighter credit conditions)," he said. "

☆ The Fed is likely to hike rates by a quarter point but it must also reassure it can contain a banking crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Investors will be looking for assurances from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the central bank can contain the banking problems. Expectations for Fed rate hikes also moved dramatically: What was expected to be a half-point hike two weeks ago is now up for debate at a quarter point or even zero. He said the Fed will not likely say it is going to pause, but its messaging could be interpreted that way. Depending on their [projections], I think the market will think this is the final hike." Swonk also expects the Fed to withhold its so-called dot plot, the chart on which it shows anonymous forecasts from Fed officials on the path for interest rates.

☆ Fed faces a nearly impossible task: Keep inflation fighting cred and financial stability
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Some investors worry the Federal Reserve will have a tough time succeeding in wielding the tools to both fight inflation and calm the banking system. During the financial crisis and again in the Covid pandemic , it was able to come to the rescue of the financial system by cutting interest rates to zero. Now, it faces persistently high inflation and is considering another rate hike — a tool that could calm rising prices but add more pain to the banking system. Goldman Sachs economists are among the few who expect the Fed to refrain from hiking Wednesday because of worries about the banking system. "We think Fed officials will therefore share our view that stress in the banking system remains the most immediate concern for now."

☆ BlackRock's Rieder says more volatility could 'play through the financial system'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

"My sense is there's still some volatility that's going to play through the financial system." "You've got clearly some additional economic contraction coming from a banking system that is going to pull back on some lending." I think spreads got too tight and I think the market was a little overzealous in all assets," Rieder said. Prior to the failure of Silicon Valley and Signature Bank, Rieder had anticipated the yield would range between 3.50% and 4.25%. Rieder expects the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point and could hike again by another 25 basis points before stopping.

☆ Bank troubles roil markets and make Fed's decision next week more fraught
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Even with Friday's sell-off, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq scored gains for the week. The S & P 500 rose 1.4%, compared to a tiny loss of 0.2% in the Dow . "If the U.S. economy is going into a recession, they're going to be buying less cloud service. On Friday, durable goods for February is reported, and there are releases of flash S & P Global PMI data for services and manufacturing. Durable goods 9:30 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard 9:45 a.m. S & P Global Manufacturing PMI 9:45 a.m. S & P Global Services PMI

Yields, which move opposite price, were rising Thursday morning after the European Central Bank raised rates by a half percentage point. Yields moved even further after his report. Bleakley Financial's Peter Boockvar said the futures market moved to price in even higher odds of a Fed rate hike. On Wednesday, odds were about 50% for a quarter point rate hike, but in Thursday afternoon trading the odds jumped up to 86%. "Rate hike expectations have been rising all morning.

☆ Tech shares were the hot play this week but investors should beware the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Big cap tech drew in investors in droves this past week, as the market struggled against volatile interest rates and fears of banking sector contagion. The futures market Thursday was pricing in strong odds of a quarter-point rate hike from the Federal Reserve next week. The big cap tech names are benefiting from a flight-to-quality within the sector, since those stocks have strong cash flow and reliable earnings. The 2-year Treasury yield , for instance, rose above 5% last week but this past week it was well below 4%. Tech and growth names have reacted poorly when rates rise, since investors tend to pay a premium for the promise of future earnings growth.

☆ This is why the Federal Reserve could stay the course and raise interest rates again
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Expectations are high that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by a quarter point next week, but the central bank could still swiftly change policy if the financial system becomes stressed. After a wild ride, fed funds futures Thursday reflected more than 80% odds that the central bank would raise rates by 25 basis points next Wednesday. Market odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike rose sharply Thursday, up from 50% Wednesday. Economists have varying views on how the central bank will respond to recent U.S. bank failures and worries about Credit Suisse. For instance, in 1987, the central bank cut rates immediately after the stock market crash and then resumed hiking again, Harris noted.

☆ A recession could come sooner on cooling bank lending
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

In this article US2Y.VIXPACWFRCCSG.N-CH Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTwatch nowStock Chart Icon Stock chart icon stx"Bear market bottoms are usually retested to ensure that the low is truly in. The rising risk of recession is now being exacerbated by the increased likelihood that banks will limit their lending," noted Sam Stovall, chief market strategist at CFRA. Treasury bonds, usually a more staid market, also traded dramatically. The 2-year Treasury yield was at 3.93% in afternoon trading, after it took a wild swing lower to 3.72%, well off its 4.22% close Tuesday. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon 2 y

☆ Stocks are bouncing but market will soon face next big hurdle
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Strategists see the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday as the next big hurdle for markets, barring any other unexpected developments. Traders in the futures market upped their bets Tuesday to a more than 70% chance that the Fed raises interest rates by a quarter point on March 22. Regional bank stocks rose sharply Tuesday after being crushed on fears there could be more bank failures, following the rapid collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The central bank will also release forecasts after that meeting, including new outlooks for interest rates and inflation. "Something pretty darn significant just broke as a result of higher rates," said Lori Calvasina, head U.S. equity strategist at RBC.

☆ The bond market's recession warning has gotten more urgent
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The bond market is sending a more urgent recession warning and also signaling that the Federal Reserve may have to pause raising interest rates — giving up its fight against inflation. The sharp move in the 2-year yield also resulted in a rapid steepening of the yield curve. "The steepening always starts to happen because the market expects the Fed to cut rates in response to that recession." DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach also said the "aggressively steepening" of the Treasury yield curve after inversion is "highly suggestive of imminent recession." The 2-year yield jumped above 5% after he spoke.

☆ Consumer inflation may have cooled in February but only slightly
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Consumer inflation may have cooled off a little in February, but economists expect it is still running at a high pace. The consumer price index, expected Tuesday morning, is forecast to show headline inflation rose 0.4% last month, or 6% from the prior year, according to economists polled by Dow Jones. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is expected to be higher by 0.4% and the annual pace is expected to be 5.5%. Tom Simons, money market economist at Jefferies, expects the Fed to stick with a quarter-point rate hike in March. By stopping here, it exposes them to risk of inflation expectations reaccelerating," said Simons.

☆ European markets expected to lower open after a week of market sell-offs
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Economists expect data coming Friday before the bell to show hiring remained strong in February and that wages grew faster than they did in the prior month. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast 225,000 new jobs were added in February, which would be lower than January's surprisingly large addition of 517,000 jobs. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, is expected to stay at 3.4%, which is a low not seen since 1969. And economists anticipate average hourly earnings will rise by 0.4% from January for a 4.8% year-over-year. That is more than the prior month, which brought a 0.3% month over month and 4.4% annualized increase.

☆ A major inflation report and fallout from Silicon Valley Bank hang over markets in week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

February's consumer inflation report should be a big driver for markets in the week ahead, as investors watch for continued fallout from the shutdown of SVB Financial Group's Silicon Valley Bank. The consumer price index report on Tuesday is the last major inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve's March 21 and 22 meeting. Silicon Valley Bank's troubles overshadowed nearly everything else in markets Thursday and Friday, as investors sought safety in the bond market and sold bank stocks. Those odds had been as high as 70% before the Silicon Valley Bank news began to hit the market. Now inflation data is being watched carefully since a very hot number could mean the Fed will become more aggressive.

☆ February is expected to have been a strong month for hiring and wage growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Economists expect hiring remained strong in February and that wages grew even faster than they did in January. Economists forecast 225,000 new jobs were added in February, lower than January's surprisingly strong 517,000 jobs, according to Dow Jones. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.4%. The persistently strong jobs market and hotter-than-expected January inflation data changed the outlook for the Fed. The futures market is now pricing an end point for Fed rate hikes near 5.75%, against the current target range of 4.50%-4.75%.

☆ Historic move in Treasury yields signals high inflation but maybe not a recession anytime soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

An inverted yield curve is considered a forewarning for recession, and the already-inverted yield curve stretched even wider this week to its most inverted level since 1981. The yield curve becomes inverted when short-duration yields rise above longer duration yields, as in the case of the 2-year Treasury yield and the 10-year yield. 10Y2YS 1Y line inversion Recession or a sign of inflation? The current shape of the yield curve tells you more about sticky inflation." Golub said the outcome of the inverted curve's recession warning has been different in periods of high inflation versus low inflation.

☆ Morgan Stanley economists say Powell opened the door to a return of half-point rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Morgan Stanley economists said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a potential return to a half-point rate hike at central bank's March meeting, depending on the strength of incoming economic data. Powell spoke before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Tuesday morning in the first of two days of Congressional testimony. The economists said Powell opened the door to raising rates by a half percentage point on March 22 even though Fed officials have previously suggested that policymakers could continue with quarter-point hikes. "Upside surprises to Friday's payroll report could drive a faster and longer tightening cycle," the Morgan Stanley economists added. The Fed raised its target fed funds rate range by a quarter point on Feb. 1, after a half-point hike in December and four 75 basis point hikes prior to that.

☆ Wall Street's bullish comments push Apple to a possible breakout zone on its chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Apple last closed above $156 in September. "The rally has lifted Apple up into strong resistance, creating a proving ground," said Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies. AAPL 1Y line aapl Stockton said Apple could get to $158, the top of the resistance zone on its chart. If Apple were to make a move and hold at a higher level, it would be good for the overall stock market. "How Apple handles $156 to $157 will give us some clues as to whether this is just another bear market bounce," said Redler.

☆ The stock market passed a key test in the charts, but another threat looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With the closely watched 10-year Treasury yield below the psychological 4% level, stocks have been able to advance. At the same time, the S & P 500 was at risk of breaking below its 200-day moving average, a momentum indicator. The 200-day is around 3,940, and the S & P 500 was trading comfortably above the key 4,000, at about 4,070 in late morning trading. The S & P touched a low 3,491.58 in October. But Krinsky said it is possible the S & P 500 could still break its lows.

☆ The Fed and a big jobs report could drive the market in the week ahead, as investors watch rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The seesaw-like tension between interest rates and stock prices should remain in play in the week ahead, as investors focus on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the February employment report. There are few earnings in the week ahead, so economic data will likely be a main driver for stocks, along with the comments from Powell. The futures market is pricing in a high chance for a quarter point, or 25 basis point hike in March. Week ahead calendar Monday Earnings: WW International, ThredUp, Trip.com, Lordstown Motor, Ciena, Grindr 10:00 a.m. Initial claims 10:00 a.m. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr Friday Earnings: Embraer 8:30 a.m. Employment report 2:00 p.m. Federal budget

☆ The Russia-Ukraine war remapped the world's energy supplies, putting the U.S. at the top for years to come
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Russia's invasion of the Ukraine a year ago has shifted global energy supply chains and put the U.S. clearly at the top of the world's energy exporting nations. The U.S. story is part of a larger remapping of world energy," said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global. "What we're seeing now is a continuing redrawing of world energy that began with the shale revolution in the United States. "The price of global natural gas spiked but came back down. According to the Department of Energy, the U.S. has been an annual net total energy exporter since 2018.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: A Fed official’s comments gave markets the confidence to rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Markets digested mixed messages on Thursday and eventually overcame fears of higher rates to stage a last-minute rally. Yet markets' fears were allayed mere hours later when Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic told the media he's in favor of lower — and slower — rate hikes. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

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